Mark Dotzour Quotes from 2015 Outlook for Texas Land Markets Conference

Mark DotzourThe Texas A&M Real Estate Center put together some power packed speakers last week at the annual Outlook for Texas Land Markets held in San Antonio, Texas. My 3 favorite speakers of the conference were Mark Dotzour, Detlef Hallermann, and Charles Gilliland. Talk about some power packed presentations …these guys know the economy, land, and oil industry.

If you’ve not had an opportunity to attend this annual Texas Land Markets conference, you’ll want to make sure to put it on your calendar in 2016. Highly recommended if you are interested in land values and market indicators.

Instead of summarizing these keynote speakers, I thought you’d be interested in some key quotes from Mark Dotzour and links below to related sites and event sponsors.

 

Great quotes from Mark Dotzour at Texas Land Market Update:

  • American’s are fighting wars on 5 fronts
    • Hot war in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan
    • Cyber war on with Russia and North Korea
    • Currency war with China, Japan, and Europe
    • Carbon war with OPEC
    • Mortgage war with Dodd-Frank regulators.
  • Average expansions since 1950 is 61 months.
  • We’ve only had 10 recessions in last 64 years and they only last an average of 11 months.
  • What would you do with the money if you sell your land? If you don’t have a plan for that money from the sale of your land, then it is not time to sell.
  • 16% of bonds on earth have a negative yield.
  • Almost 40% of all auto and new car loans in 2014 wet to sub-prime customers.
  • Americans have personal net worth of $83 trillion.
  • The Exogenous Shock – something that has a low probability of happening but the payoff is high. It just happened to the United States …OPEC says to US “we want to destroy your energy industry.”

In case you missed the event, here is the link to the information page …look for the 2016 event.  Outlook for Texas Land Markets http://www.cvent.com/events/25th-annual-outlook-for-texas-land-markets/custom-19-0005323799524f02a74c082e156a4ce6.aspx

I also want to thank the sponsors for making this conference possible for all of us!
Capital Farm Credit https://www.capitalfarmcredit.com/
New Story Media http://www.newstorymedia.com/
Crockett National Bank http://crockettnationalbank.com/
Lone Star Ag Credit https://www.lonestaragcredit.com/
United Country Real Estate http://www.unitedcountry.com/
Lands of America http://www.landsofamerica.com/

Hottest Counties for Texas Ranch Sales

Charles GillilandLast week I had the privilege of listing to Charles Gilliland speak at the Outlook for Texas Land Markets in San Antonio and he never disappoints. Mr. Gilliland is a Research Economist at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center and just has a power packed presentation every time on stage.

Recently he published an article in Lands of Texas Magazine that had to be shared with our RealStack clients. Mr. Gilliland offers that the economic expansion will continue. Texas land prices rose 9% in 2014 to $2,354 per acre and a 33% increase from 2009. That stat doesn’t really help our land broker clients as they are usually geographically focused so we took some of the data in his article and created our table of hottest counties in Texas ranch sales for Spring 2015. Mr. Gilliland’s data shows the top 5 most active counties for December 2014, January 2015, and February 2015. We’ve tabled those counties below and listed number of times they appear in the top 5 list.

COUNTY # TIMES APPEAR IN TOP 5
Henderson 2
Llano 3
Burnet 3
Gillespie 3
Kerr 2
Bandera 1

No surprise, the Texas Hill Country is hot. To view the market report click here http://issuu.com/landsoftexasmagazine/docs/spring_2015_lotm/57?e=8505824/11503970.

With the collapsing oil prices and weakened commodity prices, it did have some impact on segments of the market. Oil-based recreational buyers are putting their purchases on hold, farmland supply is low as commodity prices weaken, and cattle inventory is low as result in recent years of drought which has affected income producing ranch sales.

So as Mr. Gilliland sums it up, some see a quick resolution to weakened oil prices, but not so much for agricultural commodities. With the expanding worldwide supply of oil, some see a prolonged decline in land sales. After coming off of a banner year in 2014, no one seems to have a firm position on the next six months.

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http://recenter.tamu.edu/staff/cgilliland/